Brazil votes Sunday: Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro in tight race, Datafolha poll shows

Brazilians vote on Sunday in a presidential first round pitting leftist incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against far-right Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, eldest son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro. A Datafolha poll of 2,506 people surveyed September 29–October 1 put Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 38% in the first round — and 48% to 45% in a simulated runoff, a technical tie within the two-point margin of error. If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes on Sunday, the top two advance to a runoff on October 25; Flávio Bolsonaro has promised to pardon his father, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a failed coup after losing the 2022 election.

Source: Reuters, October 1, 2026. https://www.lapost.com/content/lula-leads-bolsonaro-by-3-points-in-brazil-runoff-scenario-datafolha-poll-shows